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China's Uncharted Transitions

It is nearly 50 years since China embarked on its program of economic reforms and the ‘open door’ policy. This marked the beginning of a systemic transition from a planned to a more market-based economy.  At the same time, China’s development transition, from a primarily agricultural to a more industrialized economy was affected. This put China in uncharted waters with the leadership frequently experimenting, backtracking, and pushing ahead in different periods and generally unsure of the future as it confronted these two transitions. To these two transitions we can now add a third transition - to a low/post-carbon economy. In this presentation, Professor Paul Bowles will draw upon his four decades of experience studying and undertaking fieldwork in China to lay out the broad contours of these momentous and complex transitions whose paths and outcomes, even now, are open to interpretation and debate. He will argue that it is important for Canadian policy-makers to be cognisant of these long run transitions and how short-termism in policy positioning can be detrimental given the nature of Canada’s own political economy. 

Dr. Paul Bowles

About the speaker:

Dr. Paul Bowles is Professor Emeritus at the University of Northern British Columbia. He did graduate work at the University of Sussex and the London School of Economics. For the past 30 years he has been at the University of Northern British Columbia where he held positions in the Department of Global and International Studies and the School of Economics as well as holding a number of visiting positions most recently as a Fulbright Canada Research Chair at the University of California Santa Barbara in 2022. He has visited China regularly since 1987. He has published widely on China including on the political economy of financial reform, labour systems, rural enterprises, privatisation, renminbi internationalisation and global value chains. He has also published on Asian regionalism and global political economy.  His research has appeared in leading academic journals as well as in print media and in presentations to government. He has served on the editorial boards on journals such as Review of International Political Economy and Pacific Affairs as well as an editor for the Critical Development Studies book series with Routledge.

September 21, 2023
Three Things We Must Get Right to Understand Global China
Dr. Pascale Massot, University of Ottawa

Dr. Pascale Massot, Assistant Professor in the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa, will give the 2023 Tony T. K. Lau Lecture on Contemporary China at the University of Manitoba, presenting her research on prevalent—and counterproductive—China frames in Canada. The three frames that will be discussed in the talk are those of “coherence”, “power” and “predictability”. Instead, Professor Massot proposes that we look at Chinese government behaviour through the frames of “heterogeneity”, “vulnerability” and “uncertainty”. Indeed, China does not behave in the same way in biodiversity and climate files, on the question of Taiwan or on the question of strategic minerals. As well, paying attention to Chinese positions of vulnerability instead of power can yield important clues as to the choices that the Chinese government makes internationally. Finally, accepting a high degree of uncertainty in our predictions of Chinese behaviour is necessary for solid analysis going forward. A common thread linking the busting of these three frames is going back to the Chinese domestic dynamics that are at the root of Chinese government behaviour internationally. In order to do this, we need more expertise and more attention devoted to understanding the Chinese polity, not less. This is true no matter one’s political proclivity. We must understand Chinese government behaviour as best we can in order to respond adequately.

Watch the 2023 lecture on YouTube

About the speaker:

Pascale Massot is an Assistant Professor at the University of Ottawa’s School of Political Studies. She was recently a member of the Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs’ Indo-Pacific Advisory Committee. She has also served as the Senior Advisor for China and Asia to various Canadian Cabinet ministers, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, at different points between 2015 and 2021. Her research focuses on the global political economy of China’s rise, China’s impact on global commodity markets, including the iron ore, copper, potash and uranium markets, Canadian foreign policy on China and Asia relations and Canadian public opinion on these matters. Pascale Massot was the 2014-2015 Cadieux-Léger Fellow at Global Affairs Canada. She was a visiting PhD candidate at Peking University’s Center for International Political Economy. She has a Ph.D. in political science from the University of British Columbia. Her book, China's Vulnerability Paradox: How the world's largest consumer transformed global commodity markets is coming out with Oxford University Press in early 2024.

September 22, 2022
China and US Economic Warfare: More Gain Than Pain
Dr. Gregory Chin, York University

Dr. Gregory Chin, Associate Professor, Department of Politics, York University, presented his research on how and why the trade war between the United States and China, and the spin-off into industrial rivalry, and financial warfare have hurt US economic interests, without seriously damaging China’s economic standing, or addressing the US economic concerns that the economic warfare was meant to solve. So far, China, including Hong Kong, have actually benefited more from the intended and unintended effects of the US commercial and financial warfare measures on China and Hong Kong, rather than be fundamentally damaged. These results also speak to the limits of the US financial warfare to date. At the same time, geopolitical tensions continue to increase across the Pacific, and globally. China has been taking measures to try to defuse the economic warfare, and to reduce its vulnerability by diversifying economically toward the Global South. The US also has important decisions regarding its next steps and its future national strategic goals. These decisions between the ‘G2’ will strongly shape the emerging world order – the world within which Canada must operate.

Watch the 2022 lecture on YouTube
 
About the speaker:
Gregory T. Chin (PhD) is Associate Professor and Undergraduate Program Director in the Department of Politics, and in the Faculty of Graduate Studies at York University (Canada). He is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Institute at the Johns Hopkins University, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He has been appointed the Mayling Birney Global Scholar by the London School of Economics and Political Science, and in residence at the LSE in Autumn 2022 at the Department of International Development. Chin co-directs the Emerging Global Governance (EGG) Project in collaboration with Global Policy journal. He is a member of the advisory or editorial boards of the journals Review of International Political Economy, Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations, and the Journal of East Asian Studies. He has published widely on the political economy of China, Asia, the BRICS, international money and finance, global governance, and Canada-US-China relations. From 2000 to 2006, Chin served in the Government of Canada, in Ottawa at the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, and the Canadian International Development Agency, and at the Canadian Embassy in Beijing. He has been working on China, and the Asian region for four decades, starting in the early 1990s.

Tony T.K. Lau came to the University of Manitoba in the late 1960s as an international student. He was active in extra-curricular activities and served as President of the UM International Students’ Organization in 1971-72. Mr. Lau earned his Bachelor of Arts in 1971 and moved on to the University of Toronto where he earned a Master of Arts degree. In 1981, Mr. Lau founded Tony Lau Insurance Agencies Ltd. in British Columbia where he continues today as President and CEO. In 1985, Mr. Lau was one of the founding members of the UM Chinese Alumni Association  of Canada (UMCAA) and is the current President. His activism has continued throughout his career in both business and charitable organizations.

In honour of the UMCAA, Mr. Lau established the Tony T.K. Lau Lectureship on Contemporary China at the University of Manitoba with a gift of $100,000 in 2019.

The purpose of the fund is to bring distinguished individuals to UM who will speak about contemporary issues related to China - ranging from trade wars and a slowing economy to human rights crises, social problems, environmental pollution and other timely topics.