Centre for Earth Observation Science

Climate Forcing of Arctic Sea Ice: Drivers and Impacts

Canada 150 Chair Professor Julienne Stroeve and her team investigate extreme events in the Arctic and impacts on communities. Research interests and expertise include sea ice remote sensing, rain-on-snow events, landfast ice hazards, storm impacts on sea ice, changes in sea ice concentration, thickness and drift in a changing climate, and implications for upper oceanographic processes.

ice berg

Background

Increased warming due to greenhouse gases has resulted in a transition from a perennial to a seasonal Arctic sea ice cover, with implications including:

  • Impacts on weather and extreme events
  • Thinner ice cover may mean more ice hazards
  • Changes in ocean freshwater budgets
  • Implications for marine ecosystems
  • Impacts on sea ice predictability with implications for maritime activities and community livelihoods

 

Research

Projects

Following an Arctic sea ice floe’s life cycle

In 2019 and 2020, two team members participated in a year-long expedition in which a large research ship called Polarstern was frozen into the Arctic sea ice pack. This allowed detailed study of how a sea ice floe moves and changes throughout the year. Credit: MOSAiC Team.

Snow cover complicates satellite measurements of sea ice

Knowing the thickness of sea ice is important for assessing whether it’s safe to travel on, but for accurate satellite measurements of sea ice, we also need to account for the snow that piles up on top of the ice. Validating satellites with field data helps us do this. Credit: Timo Hecken, German Heliservice.

Rain on snow: A multi-faceted winter hazard

When rain falls on a snowpack, it can create beautiful patterns. However, if this liquid winter rain trickles into the snowpack and freezes, the resulting hard layer of ice blocks access to vegetation underneath. This makes it difficult for caribou and musk ox to forage in winter. We’re studying better ways to predict and detect such events.  Credit: Julienne Stroeve.

Keeping track of storms

Storms bring high winds and channel (relatively) warm air into the Arctic, which influences the rate of sea ice growth in fall and sea ice loss in spring. Automated computer algorithms help us detect and track storm systems throughout the Northern Hemisphere from observations and climate models.  Credit: Alex Crawford (Figure), ERA5 (Data).

View storm track data on CanWIN

Characterizing air masses around Hudson Bay

The “atmospheric trailer” at the Churchill Marine Observatory includes many instruments, including a microwave radiometer (left) that measures the humidity and temperature throughout the atmosphere. This helps us detect when warm, humid air masses that can initiate ice melt arrive at western Hudson Bay. Credit: Alex Crawford.

 

My Climate Risk and the Churchill 4+1 Climate Action Program

Through My Climate Risk, a Lighthouse Activity of the World Climate Research Programme, we have developed a hub documenting climate change through our research across the Canadian Arctic. One of the highlighted programs of the UM MCR Hub focuses on Churchill, MB, where we involve youth through a specially designed 'climate action' course as part of their high school curriculum, teaching climate science through many lenses of knowledge.

Understanding local climate impacts in the Global North and South to collectively build climate resilience 

Understanding the local impacts of climate change is essential for building climate resilience, and has been the focus of researchers at the University of Manitoba My Climate Risk regional hub. Two important studies were published recently. The first focused on the implications of a longer ice-free season on western and southern Hudson Bay polar bear populations, finding that global warming must be kept below 2°C for these sub-populations to survive. In the second study, the impacts of sea level rise from melting ice in Antarctica on west African communities underscore the shared global demand for planning, preparedness, and policy development to address local challenges incurred by a changing climate. 

Article

Following an Arctic sea ice floe's life cycle
Snow cover complicates satellite measurements of sea ice
Rain on snow
Keeping track of storms
Characterizing air masses around Hudson Bay
Churchill students
polar bear

Project team

  • Professor Julienne Stroeve
    Canada 150 Research Chair

    Vaishali Chaudhary
    Ph.D. student

    Dr. Alex Crawford
    Collaborator

    Dr. Franck Ghomsi
    Postdoctoral Fellow

    Nicole Loeb
    Ph.D. Student

    Dr. Robbie Mallett
    Postdoctoral Fellow

    Dr. Michelle McCrystall
    External Collaborator

  • Dr. Vishnu Nandan
    Research Associate

    Dr. Erica Rosenblum
    Postdoctoral Fellow

    Monojit Saha
    Master's student

    Dr. Clement Soirot
    Postdoctoral Fellow

    Kiran Yendamuri
    Master's student
     

     

Impacts and outcomes

The development of an interdisciplinary program to explore and understand extreme events and implications for communities in the Arctic and northern Canada seeks to benefit Canada and all Canadians.

  • 12

    Researchers

  • 42

    Peer-Reviewed Publications

Related UM Today Articles

Scientists predict localized extinction of Hudson Bay polar bears if Paris Climate Agreements are breached
Prospects for polar bears in Hudson Bay
Ice, ice, maybe
Rainfall in the Arctic will soon be more common than snowfall
Five things to watch for in the latest IPCC report on climate science
Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100, UM study

Key publications

Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6 °C

Stroeve, J., Crawford, A., Ferguson, S. et al. Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6 °C. Commun Earth Environ 5, 296 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01430-7.

Exploring steric sea level variability in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: a three-decade study (1993–2022)

Ghomsi, F.E.K., Mohamed, B., Raj, R.P. et al. Exploring steric sea level variability in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: a three-decade study (1993–2022). Sci Rep 14, 20458 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70862-0.

Reduced sea ice enhances intensification of winter storms over the Arctic Ocean.

Crawford, A., Lukovich, J., McCrystall, M., Stroeve, J., & Barber, D. (2022). Reduced sea ice enhances intensification of winter storms over the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 1-39.

Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100.

Crawford, A., Stroeve, J., Smith, A., & Jahn, A. (2021). Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100. Communications Earth & Environment, 1-10.

Simulated impacts of relative climate change and river discharge regulation on sea ice and oceanographic conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex.

Lukovich, J., Jafarikhasragh, S., Myers, P., Ridenour, N., Guardia, L. d., Stadnyk, T., . . . Stroeve, J. (2021). Simulated impacts of relative climate change and river discharge regulation on sea ice and oceanographic conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex. Elementa Science of the Anthropocene.

Summer extreme cyclone impacts on Arctic sea ice.

Lukovich, J., Stroeve, J., Crawford, A., Hamilton, L., Tsamados, M., & Massonnet, F. (2021). Summer extreme cyclone impacts on Arctic sea ice. Journal of Climate, 4817-4834.

A baseline evaluation of atmospheric and river discharge conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex during 2016-2018.

Lukovich, J., Tefs, A., Jafarikhasragh, S., Pennelly, C., Myers, P., Stadnyk, T., . . . Stroeve, J. (2021). A baseline evaluation of atmospheric and river discharge conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex during 2016-2018.

Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes.

McCrystall, M., & Screen, J. (2021). Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes. Geophysical Research Letters.

New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected.

McCrystall, M., Stroeve, J., Serreze, M., Forbes, B., & Screen, J. (2021). New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected. Nature Communications, 1-12.

Surface salinity under transitioning ice cover in the Canada Basin: Climate model biases linked to vertical distribution of fresh water.

Rosenblum, E., Fajber, R., Stroeve, J., Gille, S., Tremblay, L., & Carmack, E. (2021). Surface salinity under transitioning ice cover in the Canada Basin: Climate model biases linked to vertical distribution of fresh water. Geophysical Research Letters.

Freshwater input and vertical mixing in the Canada Basin's seasonal halocline: 1975 versus 2006-2012.

Rosenblum, E., Stroeve, J., Gille, S., Lique, C., Fajber, R., Tremblay, L., . . . Lukovich, J. (2022). Freshwater input and vertical mixing in the Canada Basin's seasonal halocline: 1975 versus 2006-2012. Journal of Physical Oceanography.

Rain-on-snow (ROS) understudied in sea ice remote sensing: A multi-sensor analysis of ROS during MOSAiC.

Stroeve, J., Nandan, V., Willatt, R., Dadic, R., Rotosky, R., & Gallagher, M. (2022). Rain-on-snow (ROS) understudied in sea ice remote sensing: A multi-sensor analysis of ROS during MOSAiC. The Cryosphere Discussions, 1-42.

A multi-sensor and modeling approach for mapping light under sea ice during the ice-growth season.

Stroeve, J., Vancoppenolle, M., Veyssiere, G., Lebrun, M., & Castellani, G. (2021). A multi-sensor and modeling approach for mapping light under sea ice during the ice-growth season. Frontiers in Marine Science.

 

Funding and partners

This work has been made possible through the Canada 150 Research Chair Program.

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