Centre for Earth Observation Science

Climate Investigations of Canadian & Arctic Storm Systems

A comprehensive look at Canadian and Arctic storm systems: from origins to impacts and from historical events to future outlooks.

Cyclone in Pacific Ocean
Photo by GOES-17 (NOAA)

Background

Extratropical cyclones (i.e., large storm systems) are integral aspects of the Canadian and Arctic climate systems, transporting energy and moisture from lower latitudes, driving sea ice motion and ocean currents, and causing rapid changes to wind and temperature. The high winds, low visibility, and heavy precipitation that accompany some storms can also present major hazards to infrastructure and human activities and act as disturbances to ecosystems. The focus of this program is to better understand the origins, development, and impacts of these storms in Canada and the Arctic, their interrelationships with other aspects of the climate system, and how these storms and their relationships may change in a warming world. We use a variety of research tools, especially atmospheric reanalysis, climate models, and the CEOS/NSIDC Extratropical Cyclone Tracking (CNECT) algorithm.

Research

Projects

The CEOS/NSIDC Extratropical Cyclone Tracking Algorithm

The automated computer algorithm "CNET" is used to detect and track storm systems throughout the Northern Hemisphere from observations and climate models. (Figure: Alex Crawford; Data: ERA5.)

Link to Cyclone Project on CanWIN

Sea ice, storms, and ocean mixing

Declines in sea ice cover increase the importance of Arctic storm systems to driving vertical mixing of the underlying ocean, and therefore nutrient available in the ocean mixed layer. (Crawford, et al. 2020; Data: ERA5/NSIDC)

Arctic humidity and storm intensity

Increased evaporation in winter helps intensify Arctic storm systems by making the lower atmosphere unstable and adding more energy to fuel storm development. (Crawford, et al., 2022; Data: ERA5/NSIDC)

Fewer and slower winter storms in Canada

The Canadian Prairies will see fewer winter storms in the future, but those that do occur will move more slowly (on average). Slower speeds extend how long each storm can impact communities. (Crawford, et al. 2023; Data: CMIP6)

 

Blizzard impacts in the Canadian Arctic

A record number of blizzard days in the winter of 2021-2022 caused infrastructure failures and a state of emergency in Clyde River (Kanngiqtugaapik), Nunavut. (Fox, et al., 2023; Data: ECCC)

Storm frequency from ERA-5
High winds and no sea ice image
ERA5 storm intensity
ERA5 storm futures
Blizzard days

Project team

  • Dr. Alex Crawford
    Project Lead

    Dr. Julienne Stroeve
    Collaborator

    Dr. Michelle McCrystall
    External Collaborator

  • Dr. Mark Serreze
    External Collaborator

    Nicole Loeb
    Ph.D. Student

    Ana Cláudia Cardoso de Jesus
    Master's Student

Impacts and outcomes

The University of Manitoba’s 2024-2029 Strategic Plan highlights addressing the impacts of climate change as a major part of building a sustainable future. The impacts of climate change are often felt via changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather events like storms – including extreme events like blizzards and flood-inducing heavy rains. Better understanding of how large-scale storms form, develop, and interact with the rest of the climate system will help us better project how such storms will impact us in the future. The publications, datasets, and outreach materials generated by this project, such as those listed below, help advance that understanding.

  • 6

    Researchers

  • 7

    Peer-Reviewed Publications

Key publications

Extreme Arctic weather and community impacts in Nunavut: A case study of one winter's storms and lessons for local climate change preparedness.

Fox S, A Crawford, M McCrystall, J Stroeve, J Lukovich, N Loeb, J Natanine, & M Serreze (2023). Extreme Arctic weather and community impacts in Nunavut: A case study of one winter’s storms and lessons for local climate change preparedness. Weather, Climate and Society, 15(4), 881-892. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-23-0006.1.

The response of extratropical cyclone propagation in the Northern Hemisphere to global warming.

Crawford AD, MR McCrystall, JV Lukovich, & JC Stroeve (2023). The Response of extratropical cyclone propagation in the Northern Hemisphere to global warming.  Journal of Climate, 36(20), 7123-7142. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0082.1.

Characteristics of extreme daily precipitation events over the Canadian Arctic.

Serreze, MC, J Voveris, AP Barrett, S Fox, PD Blanken, & A Crawford (2022). Characteristics of extreme daily precipitation events over the Canadian Arctic. International Journal of Climatology, 42(16), 10353-10372. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7907.

Reduced Sea Ice Enhances Intensification of Winter Storms over the Arctic Ocean.

Crawford A, J Lukovich, M McCrystall, J Stroeve, & D Barber (2022). Reduced Sea Ice Enhances Intensification of Winter Storms over the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 35(11), 3353-3370. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0747.1.

Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere cyclone detection and tracking results to fine spatial and temporal resolution using ERA5.

Crawford, AD, EAP Schreiber, N Sommer, MC Serreze, JC Stroeve, & DG Barber (2021). Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere cyclone detection and tracking results to fine spatial and temporal resolution using ERA5. Monthly Weather Review, 149(8), 2581–2598. https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-20-0417.1.

Summer High‐Wind Events and Phytoplankton Productivity in the Arctic Ocean.

Crawford AD, KM Krumhardt, NS Lovenduski, G van Dijken, & K Arrigo (2020). Summer High‐Wind Events and Phytoplankton Productivity in the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125, e2020JC016565. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016565.

Synoptic climatology of rain-on-snow events in Alaska.

Crawford AD, KE Alley, AM Cooke, & MC Serreze (2020). Synoptic climatology of rain-on-snow events in Alaska. Monthly Weather Review, 148(3), 1275–1295. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0311.1.

 

Funding and partners

Contact us

Centre for Earth Observation Science
535 Wallace Building
125 Dysart Rd.
University of Manitoba (Fort Garry campus)
Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 Canada

ceosinfo@umanitoba.ca
204-474-7602
204-272-1532