Voter Turnout in Manitoba: An Ecological Analysis

Jared Wesley, PhD., with Lydia Summerlee

January 2011

This study examines voter turnout variations among provincial electoral constituencies during the 2007 Manitoba General Election. It was hypothesized that various constituencies have distinct electoral turnout patterns based on their own unique geographic, demographic, and political characteristics. As the findings reveal, more competitive, affluent, stable, and homogenous constituencies tend to feature higher levels of turnout compared to those that feature lower levels of party competition, lower levels of income and education, higher levels of population mobility, and higher levels of culturally diversity. Of particular note, constituencies with high proportions of Aboriginal peoples feature the lowest levels of voter turnout in the province. More than geography and demographics, however, the closeness of the local race is by far the most important factor in determining a community’s turnout rate.