Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) - Publications and Related Articles
Dr. John Hanesiak - NTP Partner 

Northern Tornadoes Project

NTP Publications

Sills, D., G. A. Kopp, E. Hong, J. Kennell, A. Jaffe, and L. Elliott, 2018: The Northern Tornadoes Project – overview and initial results. Extended Abstracts, 29th AMS Conference  on Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 60, 1-6.

Sills, D. M. L., G. A. Kopp, L. Elliott, A. Jaffe, E. Sutherland, C. Miller, J. Kunkel, E. Hong, S. Stevenson, and W. Wang, 2020: The Northern Tornadoes Project - uncovering Canada’s true tornado climatology. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0012.1.

Northern Tornadoes Project, 2021: Northern Tornadoes Project 2020 Report. Western University Engineering, 66 pp, DOI 10.5206/ntpr201

Northern Tornadoes Project, 2020: Northern Tornadoes Project 2018/19 Report Western University Engineering, 39 pp, DOI 10.5206/ntpr191.

Kopp, G. A., E. Hong, J. Kennell and D. Sills, 2018. Northern Tornadoes Flyover Project. Summary technical report of the Year 1 pilot study. Western University Engineering, 29 pp, DOI 10.5206/ntpr181

Related Articles

Alberta Research Council. (2016). The Alberta Hail Project Meteorological and Barge-Humphries Radar Archive, University of Alberta Data Library, V10.

 

Alexander, L. S., Sills, D. M. L., & Taylor, P. A. (2018). Initiation of summer convective storms at mesoscale boundaries in southwestern Ontario.Weather and Forecasting33, 583-598.

 

Barge, B. L., & Isaac, G. A. (1973). The shape of Alberta hailstones. J. Rech. Atmos.1, 11-20.

 

Bellon, A., & Austin, G. L. (1978). The evaluation of two years of real time operation of a short-term precipitation forecasting procedure (SHARP). J. Appl. Meteor.17, 1778–1787.

 

Boodoo, S., Hudak, D., Ryzhkov, A., Zhang, P., Donaldson, N., Sills D., & Reid, J. (2015). Quantitative precipitation estimation from a C-band dual-polarized radar for the 8 July 2013 flood in Toronto, Canada. J. Hydrometeor.16, 2027–2044.

 

Brimelow, J. C., Reuter, G. W., & Poolman, E. R. (2002). Modeling maximum hail size in Alberta thunderstorms. Wea. Forecasting17, 1048–1062.

 

Brimelow, J., J. Hanesiak, B. Burrows, 2011: Impacts of land-atmosphere feedbacks on deep, moist convection on the Canadian Prairies, Earth Interactions, 13 (No. 31), 1-29, DOI: 10.1175/2011EI407.1

 

Burrows, W. R., & Kochtubajda, B. (2010). A decade of cloud-to-ground lightning in Canada: 1999–2008. Part 1: Flash density and occurrence.Atmos.-Ocean48, 177–194.

 

Charlton, R. B., & List, R. (1972). Hail size distributions and accumulation zones. J. Atmos. Sci.29, 1182-1193.

 

Cheng, V. Y. S., Arhonditsis, G. B., Sills, D. M. L., Auld, H., Shephard, M. W., Gough, Wm. A., & Klaassen, J. (2013). Probability of tornado occurrence across Canada. J. Climate26, 9415-9428.

 

Cheng, V. Y. S., Arhonditsis, G. B., Sills, D. M. L., Gough, W. A., & Auld, H. (2015). A Bayesian modeling framework for tornado occurrences in North America. Nature Communications6, 6599-6609.

 

Cheng, V. Y. S., G. B. Arhonditsis, D. M. L. Sills, H. Auld, M. W. Shephard, Wm. A. Gough, and J. Klaassen, 2013: Probability of tornado occurrence across Canada. J. Climate26, 9415-9428, DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00093.1 [Abstract] [PDF]

 

Cheng, V. Y. S., G. B. Arhonditsis, D. M. L. Sills, W. A. Gough and H. Auld, 2016: Predicting the climatology of tornado occurrences in North America with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework. J. Climate29, 1899-1917, DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0404.1 [Abstract] [PDF]

 

Cheng, V. Y. S., G. B. Arhonditsis, D. M. L. Sills, W. A. Gough and H. Auld, 2015: A Bayesian modeling framework for tornado occurrences in North America. Nature Communications6, 6599, DOI 10.1038/ncomms7599. [Abtract] [PDF] 

 

Chisholm, A. J. (1973). Radar case studies and airflow models. Alberta hailstorms, Part I, Meteor. Monogr., 14, No. 36, 1–36. 

 

Chisholm, A. J., & Renick, J. H. (1972). The kinematics of multi-cell and supercell Alberta hailstorms. Research Council of Alberta Hail Studies Rep. 72-2, 24–31.

 

Crozier, C. L., Joe, P. I., Scott, J. W., Herscovitch, H. N., & Nichols, T. R. (1991). The King City operational Doppler radar: Development, all-season applications and forecasting. Atmosphere-Ocean, 29, 479-516.

 

Curry, M., Hanesiak, J., Kehler, S., Sills, D. M. L., & Taylor, N. (2017). Ground-based observations of the thermodynamic and kinematic properties of lake-breeze fronts in southern Manitoba, Canada. Boundary-Layer Meteorol.163, 143–159

 

Curry, M., J. Hanesiak and D. Sills, 2015: A radar-based investigation of lake breezes in southern Manitoba, Canada, Atmos-Ocean 53, 237-250, doi:10.1080/07055900.2014.1001317.

 

Dawson, D. T. II, Xue, M., Milbrandt, J. A., & Yau, M. K. (2010). Comparison of evaporation and cold pool development between single-moment and multimoment bulk microphysics schemes in idealized simulations of tornadic thunderstorms.  Mon. Wea. Rev.138, 1152-1171.

 

Dupilka, M. L., & Reuter, G. W. (2006). Forecasting tornadic thunderstorm potential in Alberta using environmental sounding data. Part I: Wind shear and buoyancy. Weather and Forecasting21, 325–335.

 

Dyck, R. J., Hanesiak, N. Taylor and D. Sills, 2014: Tornadic events during UNSTABLE: use of supplemental soundings. Extended Abstracts, 27th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 24. [PDF

 

English, M. (1973). Growth of large hail in the storm. Alberta Hailstorms, Part II, Meteor. Monogr.14, No. 36, 37-98.

 

Eon, G. (1945). Investigation of the bright band discussed in CAORG Report #30, Canadian Army Operational Research Group, Rep. #42.

 

Etkin, D. A., & Brun, S. E. (1999). A note on Canada's hail climatology, 1974-1993. Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1357-1373.

 

Fabry, F., Frush, C., Zawadzki, I., & Kilambi, A. (1997). On the extraction of near-surface index of refraction using radar phase measurements from ground targets. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.14, 978–987.

 

Germann, U., & Zawadzki, I. (2002). Scale-dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part I: Description of the methodology. Mon. Wea. Rev.130, 2859-2873. 

 

Hage, K. (2003). On Destructive Canadian Prairie Windstorms and Severe Winters, Natural Hazards29, 207–228.

 

Hanesiak, J., A. Tat and R.L. Raddatz, 2009: Initial Soil Moisture as a Predictor of Subsequent Summer Severe Weather in the Cropped Grassland of the Canadian Prairie Provinces, Intl J. Climatology, 29(6), 899-909 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1743

 

Hanesiak, J., M. Melsness and R.L. Raddatz, 2010: Observed and Modeled Growing Season Diurnal Precipitable Water Vapour in South-Central Canada, J. Appl. Meteorol. and Clim., 49, 2301-2314.

 

Hanesiak, J.M., R.L. Raddatz and S. Lobban, 2004: Local initiation of deep convection on the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Boundary Layer Meteorol., 110, 455–470

 

Hangan, H. (2014). The wind engineering, energy and environment (WindEEE) dome at Western University, Canada. Jpn. Assoc. Wind Eng.39, 350–351.

 

Hill, L. M. (2006). Drylines observed in Alberta during A-GAME. M.Sc. thesis, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, 124 pp.

 

Hitschfeld, W., & Bordan, J. (1954). Errors inherent in the radar measurement of rainfall at attenuating wavelengths. J. Meteor., 11, 58–67.

 

Hitschfeld, W., & Douglas, R. H. (1963). A theory of hail growth based on studies of Alberta storms. J. Appl. Math. and Phy. (ZAMP)14, 554-562.

Hunter, F., Donald, D., F. Hunter, B. Johnson, W Hyde, J. Hanesiak, M. Kellerhals, R. Hopkinson and B. Oegema, 2002: The Vanguard torrential storm (Meteorology and Hydrology). Can. Water Resour. J., 27, No. 2, 213-227.

Jaffe, A., and G. A. Kopp, 2020: Internal pressure modelling for low-rise buildings in tornadoes. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics., 209 (2021) 104454, DOI 10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104454

Miller, C., G. A. Kopp, and M. J. Morrison, 2020: Aerodynamics of air-permeable multilayer roof cladding. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics., 207 (2020) 104409, DOI 10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104409 

Joe, P., Bélair, S., Bernier, N. B., Bouchet, V., Brook, J. R., Brunet, D., … Yip, T. (2018). The Environment Canada Pan and ParaPan American Science Showcase Project. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 921-953.

 

Joe, P., Crozier, C., Donaldson, N., Etkin, D., Brun, E., Clodman, S., … Kochtubajda, B. (1995). Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather, Atmosphere-Ocean33, 249-302.

 

Joe, P., Falla, M., Van Rijn, P., Stamadianos, L., Falla, T., Magosse, D., … Dobson, J. (2002). Radar data processing for severe weather in the National Radar Project of Canada, Preprints, 21st Severe Local Storms Conference, 12-16 Aug, San Antonio, TX, American Meteorol. Soc., 221-224.

 

Kehler, S., J. Hanesiak, M. Curry, D. Sills and N. Taylor, 2016: High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) Simulations of Manitoba Lake Breezes, Atmos.-Ocean, 54, 93-107, DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2015.1137857.

 

King, P. W. S., Leduc, M., Sills, D. M. L., Donaldson, N. R., Hudak, D. R., Joe, P. I., & Murphy, B. P. (2003). Lake breezes in Southern Ontario and their relation to tornado climatology. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 795-807.

 

King, P. W. S., M. Leduc, D. M. L. Sills, N. R. Donaldson, D. R. Hudak, P. I. Joe, B. P. Murphy, 2003: Lake breezes in Southern Ontario and their relation to tornado climatology. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 795-807. [Abstract] [PDF]

 

Knott, S. R. J., & Taylor, N. M. (2000). Operational aspects of the Alberta severe weather outbreak of 29 July 1993. Nat. Wea. Digest24, 11-23.

 

Kochtubajda, B., & Burrows, W. R. (2010). A decade of cloud-to-ground lightning in Canada: 1999–2008. Part 2: Polarity, multiplicity and first-stroke peak current. Atmos.-Ocean48, 195–209.

 

Kopp, G. A, E. Hong, E. Gravanski, D. Stedman and D. Sills, 2016: Assessment of wind speeds based on damage observations from the Angus (Ontario) tornado of June 17, 2014. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 44, 37-47, DOI 10.1139/cjce-2016-0232. [PDF

 

Kopp, G. A., Hong, E., Gravanski, E., Stedman, D., & Sills, D. (2016). Assessment of wind speeds based on damage observations from the Angus (Ontario) tornado of June 17, 2014. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 44, 37-47.

Krauss, T., & Marwitz, J. (1984). Precipitation processes within an Alberta Supercell Hailstorm, J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1025-1035.

Mansour, M. A., D. M. Rhee, T. Newson, C. Peterson and F. T. Lombardo, 2021: Estimating Wind Damage in Forested Areas Due to Tornadoes, Forests, 12(1), doi 10.3390/f12010017

Stevenson, S. S.,  G. A. Kopp and A. M. El Ansary, 2020: Prescriptive Design Standards for Resilience of Canadian Housing in High Winds.  Frontiers in Built Environment., Vol 6, Article 99, DOI 10.3389/fbuil.2020.00099

Milbrandt, J. A. & Yau, M. K. (2005). A multimoment bulk microphysics parameterization. Part II: A proposed three-moment closure and scheme description. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3065-3081. 

Milbrandt, J. A. & Yau, M. K. (2006).  A multimoment bulk microphysics parameterization. Part III: Control simulation of a hailstorm. J. Atmos. Sci.63, 3114-3136.

 

Milbrandt, J. A., Bélair, S., Faucher, M., Vallée, M., Carrera, M. L., & Glazer, A. (2016). The pan-Canadian High Resolution (2.5 km) Deterministic Prediction System, Weather and Forecasting31, 1791-1816.

 

Newark, M. J. (1984). Canadian Tornadoes, 1950-1979. Atmos.-Ocean22, 343-353. 

 

Raddatz, R. L. & Cummine, J. D. (2003). Inter-annual variability of moisture flux from the prairie agro-ecosystem: Impact of crop phenology on the seasonal pattern of tornado days. Bound.-Layer Meteor.106, 283–295. 

 

Raddatz, R. L. & Hanesiak, J. M. (1991). Climatology of Tornado Days 1960-1989 for Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Climat. Bull.25, 47-59.

 

Raddatz, R.L. and J.M. Hanesiak, 2008: Significant Summer Rainfall in the Canadian Prairie Provinces: Modes and Mechanisms 2000 – 2004, Intl J. Climatology, 28(12), 1607-1613, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1670

Rhee, D. M., F. T. Lombardo and J. Kadowaki, 2021: Semi-automated tree-fall pattern identification using image processing technique: Application to Alonsa, MB tornado. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, Volume 208 https://doi.org/10.1016/

Rogers, R.R. (1996): A short history of meteorology at McGill. CMOS Bulletin SCMO, 24, 144-148. 

Sills, D. and A. Ashton, 2012: Examination of a remarkable Great Lake-spawned tornadic supercell: the 2011 Goderich Ontario F3 tornado event. Extended Abstracts, 26th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 6.4., 1-14. [PDF]

 

Sills, D. M. L, S. J. Scriver and P. W. S. King, 2004: The Tornadoes in Ontario Project (TOP). Preprints, 22nd AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms,Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., CD-ROM Paper 7B.5. [PDF]

 

Sills, D. M. L. and P. W. S. King, 2000: Landspouts at lake breeze fronts in southern Ontario. Preprints, 20th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 243-246. [HTML]

 

Sills, D. M. L., 1998: Lake and land breezes in southwestern Ontario: observations, analyses and numerical modelling. PhD dissertation, CRESS, York University, 338 pp. [PDF]

 

Sills, D. M. L., and P. I. Joe, 2019: From Pioneers to Practitioners: A short history of severe thunderstorm research and forecasting in Canada.Atmosphere-Ocean57, 249-261, DOI 10.1080/07055900.2019.1673145. [Abstract]

 

Sills, D. M. L., Ashton, A., Knott, S., Boodoo, S., Bélair, S., Klaassen J., & Yang, H. (2016). A billion dollar flash flood in Toronto – challenges for forecasting and nowcasting. Extended Abstracts, 28th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 5B.5A, 1-15.

 

Sills, D. M. L., Brook, J. R., Levy, I., Makar, P. A., Zhang, J., & Taylor, P. A. (2011). Lake breezes in the southern Great Lakes region and their influence during BAQS-Met 2007. Atmos. Chem. Phys.11, 7955-7973.

 

Sills, D. M. L., P. J. McCarthy and G. A. Kopp, 2014: Implementation and application of the EF-scale in Canada. Extended Abstracts, 27th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 16B.6, 1-8. [PDF

 

Sills, D., E. Hong, A. Jaffe, S. Stevenson, and G. A. Kopp, 2018: The ‘cross-border’ tornado outbreak of 24 August 2016 – analysis of the two tornadoes in Ontario. Extended Abstracts, 29th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 180, 1-13.

 

Sills, D., G. A. Kopp, E. Hong, J. Kennell, A. Jaffe, and L. Elliott, 2018: The Northern Tornadoes Project – overview and initial results. Extended Abstracts, 29th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 60, 1-6.

 

Sills, D., H. Yang and P. Joe, 2014: A Lightning Mapping Array in southern Ontario, Canada: uses for severe weather nowcasting. Extended Abstracts, 27th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 83, 1-9. [PDF

 

Sills, D., M.-E. Giguère and J. Henderson, 2016: A unique cold-season supercell produces an EF1 ‘snownado’. Extended Abstracts, 28th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper 1A.1, 1-11. [PDF

 

Sills, D., P. Taylor, P. King, W. Hocking and I. Nichols, 2002: ELBOW 2001 - studying the relationship between lake breezes and severe weather: project overview and preliminary results. Preprints, 21st Severe Local Storms Conference, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 611-614. [PDF]

 

Sills, D., V. Cheng, P. McCarthy, B. Rousseau, J. Waller, L. Elliott, J. Klaassen and H. Auld, 2012: Using tornado, lightning and population data to identify tornado prone areas in Canada. Extended Abstracts, 26th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Paper P59, 1-10. [PDF

 

Silver, A. (2015). Watch or warning? Perceptions, preferences, and usage of forecast information by members of the Canadian public. Meteor. Appl.22, 248–255.

 

Smith, S. B. & Yau, M. K. (1993). The causes of severe convective outbreaks in Alberta. Part II: Conceptual model and statistical analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 1126-1133.

 

Stewart, R. E. & List, R. (1983). Gyrational motion of disks during free fall. Phys. Fluids26, 920-927.

 

Strong, G. S. (1986). Synoptic to mesoscale dynamics of severe thunderstorm environments: A diagnostic study with forecasting implications. Ph.D. thesis, University of Alberta, 345 pp.

 

Strong, G. S., Kochtubajda, B., Summers, P. W., Renick, J. H., Krauss, T. W., Humphries, R. G., & Lozowski, E. P. (2007). 50th anniversary of hail studies in Alberta - accomplishments and legacy. CMOS Bulletin35, 3-19.

 

Taylor, N. M., Sills, D. M. L., Hanesiak, J. M., Milbrandt, J. A., Smith, C. D., Strong, G. S., … Brimelow, J. C. (2011). The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE) 2008. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.92, 739-763.

 

Thomas, M. K. (1991). The Beginnings of Canadian Meteorology. ECW Press, Toronto, Canada. 308 pp

 

Dr. John Hanesiak - NTP Partner

 

Northern Tornadoes Project