Foot-and-Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious illness of livestock and
a serious economic threat. In this talk, I will present an explicit discrete
spatial epidemic model that is applied to the 2001 FMD epidemic in Uruguay.
The model comprises a series of coupled differential equations that includes
geo-referenced data (i.e. euclidean distances between farms, as estimated in
relation to distances between county centroides).
The value of spatially explicit models in the development and testing of FMD control measures was tested using the corresponding spatially homogeneous model as basis for comparison. The limitations of spatially homogeneous models were illustrated by their inability to capture effectively observed patterns of spread. We also use our calibrated model to assess the timely implementation of a mass vaccination program. Finally, if time permits, I will briefly discuss some data-driven hypothesis on the potential of different counties for epidemic dispersal and assess those hypotheses using the same dataset.