Mathematical Model Applications to Disease and Homeland Security
(Carlos Castillo Chavez, Arizona State University)

The events of 9/11 in the US changed the way we look at routine activities such as air and mass-transportation travel.   We (as a society) are somewhat prepared to respond to natural acts (epidemics, earthquakes, etc.) but have no data or reliable information that would help in the planning or identification of a set of responses if a deliberate act (against unsuspecting population) were to take place.  I will highlight some of the challenges that we face and outline the use of mathematical models in our efforts to meet some of them.  I will use recent SARS and foot and mouth epidemics to ground some of the ideas.  Should we prepare for worst case scenarios?  If so, how do we define worst case scenarios mathematically?  I will conclude with the use of some of these ideas on the potential impact or consequences associated with the deliberate release of a biological agent in the mass transportation system of a major metropolitan area.